President’s Corner: The Carney Government at Transition’s End

Dec 11, 2025

In governance terms, the imminent passage of a first budget is an important milestone. And it is about more than simply maintaining the confidence of the House. A government’s first budget marks the end of transition from one government to another. By this point, Cabinet has been formed, Parliament has met, and the newly elected government has taken, however haltingly, its first steps as an elected government. Importantly, the Canadian public’s first impressions have been cemented.

Two things stand out from the first half year of the mandate:

Nothing if not consistent: Seven missions, do big things, diversify from the US and play an elbow’s up long game. Agree or not with the direction and execution, but these themes pervade the Prime Minister’s speeches, the Government’s Speech from the Throne, and Budget as well as his public mandate letter to his ministry.

Unafraid to strike out in new directions from its predecessor: The juxtaposition is often stark with the Trudeau Government, as policy u-turns on the carbon tax, feminist foreign policy and industrial policy attest.

All told, this has been an eventful start. For those who study transitions, it can be rated “a clean launch”, as the new government has been in control of its message and the levers of power. Tricky early tests such as hosting the G7 summit within two months of the election have been navigated successfully. But it is very, very early days. Events will undoubtedly challenge the Carney Government’s narrative and view of Canada’s future. A failure to execute could cause Canadians to doubt whether the vision is realistic. And, as yet, the Carney Government remains untouched by scandal. So, while the government appears to be in a stable, minority position, this can change very quickly.

A clean launch does not guarantee a successful mandate. But it is way better than the alternative. Just ask the Starmer Government in the UK, who have yet to fully regain their footing (and certainly their popularity) after some early stumbles. At a time when Canada was under extreme pressure, the early surefootedness comes as a relief.

There is a certain symmetry to the end of a transition and the end of the calendar year. As we look to the new year, I extend my best wishes to you all for a safe holiday season.